In recent weeks, the strength of the U.S. dollar has put significant pressure on currencies around the world. This surge has been primarily driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a shift in monetary policies from major central banks in Europe, Switzerland, and Canada, which have lowered interest rates. As a result, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, climbed an additional 1.2% last week, nearing a two-year high. However, analysts are cautioning that the dollar's dominance may peak in 2025, potentially igniting a currency depreciation race as the U.S. seeks to intentionally weaken its currency to bolster manufacturing.

The outlook for the dollar in 2023 has been a rollercoaster ride, with expectations often being overtaken by rapid changes in market dynamics. As we approached the fourth quarter of 2023, the market was buoyed by a promising outlook on U.S. inflation, which fueled speculation about an imminent shift towards a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle. Analysts at the time predicted that the dollar's strength would wane in 2024 as non-dollar currencies gained momentum. Yet, as the new year unfolded, inflation data stagnated, and the much-anticipated first rate cut from the Fed was delayed, leading to a renewed increase in the dollar index. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index has climbed 5.71%, standing at 107.11, and has seen three consecutive months of gains.

In a report released on December 11th, BCA Research suggested that the probability of a reversal in the trade-weighted dollar index from its current strength to a depreciation cycle is increasing, with indications that the peak could be reached in 2025. While the exact timing remains uncertain—possibly occurring in the first half of the following year—the rationale behind this potential decline points to a concerted effort to boost American manufacturing jobs. The theory posits that a weaker dollar would make U.S. goods cheaper for foreign buyers, thereby stoking demand and encouraging domestic production and employment. Notably, this approach might be perceived as less detrimental to economic health compared to implementing stringent trade barriers.

This strategy mirrors historical instances such as the Plaza Accord from the 1980s, where the U.S. utilized foreign exchange market interventions—not interest rate hikes—to drive a depreciation of the dollar. Similar tactics could emerge as government policy shifts are anticipated. Recent commentary from the UBS Chief Investment Office suggests a cautious optimism in the markets regarding the impending policy agenda of the incoming administration, drawing attention to the ongoing assumption that U.S. trade tariffs will have a slightly negative impact, while a robust economy remains the prevailing expectation.

Nevertheless, UBS raised concerns that the market may be underestimating the effects of tariffs. The dollar could maintain its stronghold in the short term, especially if tariff strategies are more aggressive than anticipated. However, given the current high valuation of the dollar, it may confront downward pressure in the medium term. Investors are advised to leverage the prevailing strength of the dollar to prepare for these anticipated weaknesses.

Further analysis by UBS highlights an overarching worry: the financial markets may be overly confident that forthcoming changes in trade and immigration policies will not severely hamper U.S. economic growth. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that tariffs could lead to a 0.5 percentage point reduction in U.S. GDP growth by 2026. Moreover, UBS asserts that restrictions on immigration are poised to exert additional drag on overall economic growth, amplifying concerns about the potential long-term implications of weakening foreign currency positions.

The interplay of moderate inflation in the U.S. alongside a cooling labor market may provide a window for the Federal Reserve to consider a 25 basis point rate cut this month, followed by a more substantial 100 basis points reduction in 2025, exceeding current forecasts. Additionally, anticipated tariffs are unlikely to sustain a long-term uptick in inflation, further diluting the dollar's historical support derived from tight monetary policies.

Moreover, concerns surrounding U.S. government debt may pose a significant threat to the dollar's strength. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that between 2025 and 2034, the average annual federal deficit will reach a staggering $1.9 trillion, equating to 5.4% of GDP during that period. In stark contrast, the average deficit over the past fifty years has been only 3.7%. By the end of 2034, public-held federal debt is expected to balloon to 122% of GDP. Given the current dynamics of U.S. debt and interest rates, the scope for implementing expansive fiscal policies appears limited, though looming policy agendas could once again place the issue of deficits in the spotlight.

What then are the factors that may undermine the dollar's position of strength? On December 15th, analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Tewolde released a global foreign exchange outlook titled "Stronger for Longer," projecting that the strong dollar will remain a prevailing narrative in the forex market for an extended period due to shifts in the global economic landscape. However, even Goldman Sachs has highlighted potential risk factors capable of diminishing the dollar's strength.

Firstly, if the Federal Reserve is compelled to cut rates more aggressively due to economic pressures, this could stymie further dollar appreciation. Additionally, if the U.S. government opts for more protectionist measures in response to worsening trade deficits, it may trigger heightened market volatility as risk aversion rises. Secondly, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding market sentiment towards tariff policies. If concerns regarding these tariffs dissipate, other major currencies may rebound in the short term, posing a challenge to the dollar's stronghold. Lastly, if economic recoveries in Europe and China outperform expectations, global capital flows could rebalance, diminishing the dollar's allure.

Concerning the impact of trade tariffs on non-dollar currencies, UBS notes that the implementation of such tariffs may not be uniformly negative; the degree and direction of their effects could vary significantly across different currency pairs. For instance, the euro, pound, and Australian dollar could benefit from a softer dollar index, while the cost of carry for short positions against the yen progressively diminishes in light of the anticipated narrowing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential, likely seeing the dollar-yen exchange rate slide to around 145 by the end of 2025. Currently, the cost of holding a short position against the yen is approximately 4% annually, which may discourage aggressive market movements, though upward pressure on the dollar-yen rate could emerge if it breaches the 155 mark.

Asian currencies face varying degrees of pressure amidst this landscape. Investors with exposure to non-Japanese Asian currencies are encouraged to consider hedging these positions, as the majority of Asian currencies currently offer meager carry yields, thus resulting in low hedging costs. Export-oriented currencies such as the South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit are expected to demonstrate vulnerability. In contrast, currencies from economies more reliant on domestic demand, such as the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, and Philippine peso, may display resilience amidst escalating global trade tensions. However, these nations also contend with high current account deficits, relying on compensatory capital inflows to sustain their currencies. A decline in global risk appetite could jeopardize these inflows, possibly leading to temporary depreciation of these three currencies.